The government refuses to let the Crime Prevention Council, Brå, make a new study of immigrants’ crime. But if you update market shares for criminals of different categories from the 2005 study, it appears that people with immigrant background of all judgment now commit the most crimes in Sweden.
Via: Jan Tullberg
The government believes that we do not need to investigate further immigrant crime. Everyone claims to be in agreement that they are overrepresented in crime, but that the difference is reduced by taking into account various socio-economic factors. According to the government, we should not investigate immigrants’ crime further without focusing on helping them with better socio-economic circumstances.
The contest in the Crime Prevention Council’s 2005 report was to compare the crime rates of different immigrant backgrounds – foreign-born, Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents, and Swedish-born with a foreign-born parent – with those who have two Swedish-born parents. The Swedish group’s crime was given the value 1.0. The foreigners’ crime was estimated to be 2.5, that is 150 percent higher than the Swedes. For Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents, the overrepresentation was 2.0 while those with a foreign-born parent had a crime of 1.4. This concerns crimes in total, but instead investigates gross violent crime such as robbery, abuse and rape, the overrepresentation of different immigrant groups is considerably higher.
The latest report from the Crime Prevention Council, Brå-2005, analyzes crime in the period 1997-2001, so it may be time for an update. The immigrants have increased by one million from 2000 to 2016, which naturally increased their share of crime in Sweden, and already that change requires an update.
An additional reason for updating is that the foreign-born today has a changed composition in terms of origin, which can have a big impact on crime. Brå-2005 compared to Brå-1996 and commented that “over-risk” for foreigners increased from 2.1 to 2.5. The report states: “The overcrowding of foreigners has increased due to the fact that some immigrant groups today are to a greater extent registered for crimes than 12 years ago. The increase is instead explained mainly by the fact that the number of persons in Sweden belonging to refugee groups, which has already been shown to be particularly high in previous studies, has increased “(p. 11). This update has therefore also taken into account these changes in the calculation of immigrant crime by 2016.
The analysis in 1996 contains evidence that the foreigners can be divided into three groups, those with low, medium and high crime rates. If you examine the distribution between the three groups, you will find significant changes over time. The change of the mix has continued from 2000 to 2016 with a higher proportion of immigrant population who has shown a higher proportion of criminals. The proportion of foreign-born in the group with average crime rates is quite unchanged at 47 percent, while the low-crime group has fallen to 19 percent and the high crime group has increased to 34 percent, a change of about 10 percentage points. This has meant that the excess risk of crime for foreign-born immigrants in Sweden continues to increase, now from factor 2.5 in 2000 to 2.9 by 2016. Immigrant crime is increasing by the immigrants becoming a larger proportion of the population and by the immigrant group having a changed composition .
Foreigners without Swedish National Registration Number accounted for 7 percent of the criminals in the Brå-2005 study. The update counts unchanged proportion of the criminals from this group. This may be too optimistic as the proportion increased from 3 to 7 percent between the two studies Brå-1996 and Brå-2005. The number of illegal persons and their criminal activity may well have increased further.
The groups Swedish-born with two foreign-born parents and Swedish-born with a foreign-born parent are calculated with the same upper risk as in Brå-2005, 2.0 and 1.4 respectively. This is also optimistic. A higher crime rate in parenting probably leads to the numbers of the second generation. Brå has previously stated the positive that second-generation immigrants in Sweden are less criminal than the first generation, while the relationship in many other countries is the opposite. The major social problems in immigrant areas can be interpreted as signs of increased crime in the second generation immigrants. But below, no increased crime per person is counted, only the two populations have grown.
If we update market shares for criminals of different categories from Brå-2005, we will get a new picture. Of course, it was best to do a new study. Please, one inspired by the 1996 study, which is more ambitious than that made in 2005. Before such a future study is presented, updates should be used as this analysis, instead of using figures from Brå-2005. That survey has a historical interest, but now the best date has passed since long.
Two attached diagrams
It should also be stressed that the statistics concern the number of criminals, not the number of crimes. On average, these people have been linked to almost two crimes per person. However, the number of reported offenses is four times more than those that have been linked to a suspected one. A large part of the offenses with unknown perpetrators have reasonably been committed by persons who are “already known by the police”. However, this article does not seek to allocate the total amount of crime but stops at Brå’s goal of invoking the group of criminals and distributing it among different population categories.
In general, overrepresentation for immigrants increases if you examine specific serious crimes such as robbery and rape. There have also been a series of new crime categories with very high immigrant involvement: group violence, car fires, attacks on police and other blue-eyed personnel – and perhaps the most worrying terrorist attack in Sweden. But even for a wide array of different crimes, coarse and less serious, people with immigrant background commit themselves to judging most of the crimes in Sweden.
The article up to the previous paragraph has been sent to Dagens Nyheter, Svenska Dagbladet, Göteborgsposten, Fokus og Dagens Samhälle. They have all thanked this attempt to provide a better basis for analysis and discussion. In many questions, the political establishment wishes ignorance and silence.The media should experience that they have a mission to counteract this veritophobia. But unfortunately, they often fend off the ideals of completing a reviewing and informative function. This is an example.